Backcasting

This week, we will show how to make a backward forecast using only NumXL functions in Excel. We will also discuss the relationship between a regular time series model and an implied backward/reversed time series model.

Volatility 101

We start a new on-going series on volatility modeling and forecast. In this issue, we start with the definition and general dynamics of volatility in financial time series. Next, we will use historical data to develop a few methods to…

The Ins and Outs of Histograms

In this issue, we will tackle the probability distribution inference for a random variable. No matter how good a stochastic model you have, you will always end up with an error term (aka shock or innovation) and the uncertainty (e.g.…