Principal Components

Read through the articles related to principal components analysis and regression techniques in time series analysis.

Time series plot for the 1st and third principal component of the new data set (10 variables: 9 spot prices of EIA PADD regions and WTI spot price.

WTI Futures Curve Analysis with PCA (Part 1)

In this study, we examine the daily prices of the first four (4) contracts of WTI CL futures listed on NYMEX, compute the number of days to the delivery month for each contract, and carry out principal component analysis (PCA) in an attempt to uncover the core drivers behind the futures curve changes (i.e. level and general shape).

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Data plot for the spot weekly average of ultra low sulfur diesel in Nine(9) EIA PADD regions

Making Sense of Diesel Prices

In this case, we examine the highway retail price ($/Gallon) for “No.2 Ultra Low Sulfur (0-15 ppm) Diesel” in the EIA nine (9) PADD regions and carry on principal component analysis in an attempt to find a minimal subset of the principal components that capture (or explains) the variation (spreads) in prices across different regions with a minimal loss of information.

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